Tag Archive - Publishing

A Defense of Traditional Publishing: Part Two

CURATION

The word “curation” embodies one of the key activities of a traditional publisher. My understanding of this word has been forever enriched by Steven Rosenbaum, the author of the fantastic book Curation Nation: Why the Future of Content is Context. (You owe it to yourself to read this book.)

We usually associate the curator with a museum. Our daughter worked for a family where the father was the curator for a major Art Museum in Fort Worth. We attended one of the exhibits he put together. Each painting and sculpture was there for a reason and he had spent a year traveling the world to select the best pieces for the event. He didn’t simply do an Internet search for “French Impressionists” and click through the top 100 search results. He hand-picked each piece. His job was all about selection, organization, and presentation.

In much the same way the publisher (and literary agent) carries the vital role of choosing which books and which authors are the best and have the most likely chance of commercial success. That is “curation.”

Rosenbaum says, “First, curation is about adding value from humans who add their qualitative judgment to whatever is being gathered and organized. And second, there is both amateur and professional curation, and the emergence of amateur or pro-sumer curators isn’t in any way a threat to professionals.” (Curation Nation, pages 3-4)

Before the Internet allowed for the proliferation of information the process was “curate first, then publish.” The ease of self-publishing has created a “publish first, then curate” mentality. The thinking here is to let the market decide. Let the word-of-mouth or viral community determine what works and what doesn’t. While there is considerable merit to this, in practice, obscurity is a more likely outcome.

I was stunned to read a couple weeks ago that in one day there were 16,000 new ebooks made available on the Kindle platform…all of them free to download. Think about the implications of that for a second. Sixteen thousand free books dumped into the system in one day. That would fill a good sized bookstore or even a regional library. This is the perfect example of “publish then curate.” Granted, it is likely these are all public domain titles uploaded from the Gutenburg Project and aren’t really commercial competition, but the point is still valid.

Our book purchasing patterns have shifted from a browsing activity to a searching activity. When you are online you cannot scan dozens of titles in a second to see what jumps out. Online we usually type (or click) a specific word, genre, or author name and search from there. The bestselling authors are placed in our peripheral view by the algorithms created by the vendor. The unknown author remains in obscurity. But in a brick and mortar store we stand in front of 500 or more titles in a section and browse where there is a chance that a new author or title will catch our eye. This is not a defense of one way versus the other, merely how we have shifted in our patterns.

The implication is that it is that much harder to stand out among the crowded data online. There are always exceptions like Amanda Hocking or J.A. Konrath in the ebook world and The Shack in the paperback book world. But exceptions do not make the rule. Without curation books like Radical by David Platt or Crazy Love by Frances Chan would not have been placed front and center for your attention.

Many authors bristle at this notion of curation saying, “What gives them the right to say yes or no to my manuscript?” Not everyone is understanding when our agency says “no.” Today’s technology allows that writer to still make the material available with little cost. But is that always a good thing?

Put it another way. What if all 10,000 applicants to American Idol were given recording contracts and their music uploaded on iTunes today? How would you know what is worth your time, not just your money? Watching the early auditions of Idol makes one thankful there is someone curating.

Another criticism is that traditional publishers are not doing a good job of curating. “Their choices are weak” and “the books they acquire are only by the already established authors.” The mid-list writers are being cut out of the herd and slaughtered. Only the big names or the fresh newcomers are being given a chance.

While not all publishing choices are good ones at least there is a measure of reasonable decision making going into the process. I know a lot of these editorial curators. They are pretty savvy people, many of them long time veterans of the publishing wars.

In my opinion, Curation is one of the major reason to embrace the traditional publishing model. For all its warts, it is still better than the alternative.

A Defense of Traditional Publishing: Part One

A Defense of Traditional Publishing: Part Three

 

A Defense of Traditional Publishing: Part One

 

INTRODUCTION

There has been a plethora of new developments in the publishing industry causing the blogosphere, writers groups, and print media to light up with opinions, reflections, and advice. Some of it has been quite brilliant, other parts, not so much.

I would like to attempt to address the positive elements of traditional (or legacy) publishing as a defense of the latest round of assault.

The source of the overall criticism can be found in the e-book revolution and the invention of print-on-demand (POD) printing. Book Publishing used to be a difficult and expensive proposition but has become a valid do-it-yourself option. Consequently anyone can publish a book, so why be beholden to the major publishers?

Please realize that I understand both sides of the equation. After all I founded ACW Press in 1996 B.G. (“Before Google”) to help authors self-publish (the company was sold quite some time ago). I can effectively argue for the choice to self-publish as well as argue for the choice to pursue traditional publishing. Both have their place.

What has troubled me these past few months has been the vociferous rejection of the traditional publishing method as antiquated, inefficient, top heavy, corporate-driven, and uncaring about author’s financial well-being or their content. A vocal few have declared the “system” broken and walked away, either as a rebel, angry at the “man,” or as a risk-taker believing that going alone is the key to publishing success. Whether their rebellion has merit only time will decide.

Meanwhile over the next few weeks (one per week) I would like to recite the things traditional publishers are doing right. There is no agenda other than creating a conversation and a counter to some of what is being written about our industry.

A Defense of Traditional Publishing: Part Two

A Defense of Traditional Publishing: Part Three

 

 

Promotion: Faithful or Self-full?

“What’s the difference between promotion and self-promotion? How do we promote ourselves/our books so that we honor God, respect others, and use common sense?”

The constant tension between marketing and ministry has plagued the Christian author, speaker, bookseller and publisher forever. Why? Because Jesus threw the money changers out of the temple. Because we are commanded to die to self and to humble ourselves in the sight of the Lord….

And yet, our society…our culture insists, even demands, that we market and promote our message.

Hanging on my office wall is the following saying from Ignatius Loyola:

Work as if everything depends on you.
Pray as if everything depends on God.

And another one is from James 5:16:
…the effectual fervent prayer of a righteous man availeth much.

Maybe that is the beginning of the balance. People in business, not just publishing, must work hard and make every effort to excel in their field of expertise. We never question a bank needing to marketing their wares, but if a “Christian” bank were to do so the critics would surge with vitriol. The principles of a successful business come into play with regard to our profession. We are in the “business” of communicating the message of redemption to a world that doesn’t read. Thus we are called to excellence in our craft for we have a message that can change lives. If we do not make every effort to be an “evangelist” (see marketer) of that message, the message will likely not be read or heard, and thus ministry would rarely occur.

Even the Mother Teresas, Thomas Mertons, Richard Fosters, John Eldreges, and Henri Nouwens of the world were “out there” in the public eye. They had a message of change that they were called to deliver. Thus they took the speaking engagements, they worked with their publishers in publicity, and they wrote absolutely stellar books that nearly sold themselves. Our challenge is to avoid the “Publican” attitudes of “I”, “Me”, and “My”. Instead we should strive to incorporate the “Us”, “Our”, and “We”.

How do you keep your balance?

Amazon Rank Obsession

Admit it. You’ve checked your Amazon.com sales ranking at least once since your book was published. You feel the need to have some outside confirmation of the sales of your book. And Amazon’s ranking are free to look at.

I’ve even seen book  proposals where the author has gone to great lengths to include the Amazon ranking for each title that is competitive with the one the author is proposing. A prodigious amount of wasted effort.

Publishers rarely pay attention to Amazon rankings unless yours gets below 1,000 or if you get in the top 100.

I’ve known authors who have gone into deep depression because their Amazon numbers aren’t very good.

Consider for a moment how those rankings are calculated. Amazon is very secretive as to the exact formula (and some have gone to great lengths to figure it out) but consider looking at it as “the number of sales in a given period of time.” Much like the bestseller lists with USA Today and the New York Times a book has to sell x number of copies to somehow “hit the list.”

This fascinating article by Morris Rosenthal guesses that to get into the top 10,000 on Amazon your book needs to sell at least 2 copies a day. And to get in the top 100 you may have to sell 100 copies a day.

I know of a case where a book sold 700 copies with Amazon (based on publisher’s information) in one week and got into the top 100 ranking. So Rosenthal’s guess may not be too far off.

Another author thought that they could make the number jump by asking fans to wait until a specific day and have everyone buy the book from Amazon on that day. Over 100 fans participated. The result was a nice jump but it did not come close to cracking the top 100 sales ranking that day.

It is so fluid that it is hardly worth the obsession. Amazon is only one sales outlet out of hundreds. It doesn’t reflect sales at the local grocery store, the Christian bookstore, the independent retailer in your town, much less sales to Barnes & Noble and other “big box” outlets. In that light consider Amazon as a single snapshot of a single moment from a single sales source.

If you really must track your Amazon ranking here are a couple sites that do the heavy lifting for you:
Novel Rank
Sales Rank Express

To bring levity to the conversation, a husband and wife team created the following  short video that is a hilarious send up on Amazon rank obsession. Make sure you watch past the credits:

All About E

This was the year of the E word. “E-Books.” The topic replaced the other “e” word…the Economy…as the number one topic among authors, editors, publishers and agents. And the news media reported every nuance with breathless excitement. The iPad, the iPhone4,  the Droid, the avalanche of tablets, the Kindle, the Nook, and a deluge of e-reading devices, all commanded our time and attention.

But the story is not over. In fact 2011 promises to continue this conversation as our industry writhes in chronic pain from its various twists and turns.

Two articles that you should read to help with some year end thoughts….

First, from Dominique Raccah, the CEO of Sourcebooks, very openly talking about the mistakes they made in trying to do a one-day e-book promotional giveaway of their Jane Austen books.  This is evidence of the veritable labyrinth called the e-book marketing and sales world.

I’ve heard authors express their misunderstanding of publishing by saying, “But e-books are easy to sell. Just make the conversion and put it up on Amazon!” But  this CEO’s article should divest you of that thought.

This past Summer I sat through a two hour presentation from Hachette regarding their Digital initiatives. I came away discovering that it is far more complex than I ever realized. And came away very glad that publishers were working hard to maximize both revenue and opportunities for my clients.

Second is an article that will be published in Sunday’s LA Times but the online version released today.  In it David Ulin claims that “E-books are Good News for the Literary World.” Here is a key quote:

The issue is not what we read on, just as the issue is not what we read. The issue is that we read, that we continue to interact with long-form writing; by altering the conditions of the conversation, e-books and e-readers have already served an essential purpose.

Well said. Note that in the article he admits to rarely using e-readers, but that he appreciates and accepts their use.

Thus 2010 added a new letter to our vocabulary. Instead of just the three Rs (readin’, writin’, and ‘rithmatic) we have added an “E.”  Bu wouldn’t that make it ER? (an unfortunately pairing of letters when applied to the state of publishing).

The Slush Pile: Enter at Your Own Risk


Click the picture to read the caption www.101reasonstostopwriting.com

The publishing world is divided between those who have read the slush pile and those who have not. If you have, then you can understand some of the cynicism and jaded eyes you see behind the glasses of an editor or an agent.

If you have not, then it is difficult to comprehend the unbelievable variety of ideas that can cross our desks. Let me provide you with some recent examples but with a huge caveat. I am not mocking these writers. I’m using them, as a teacher would, as an example of what not to send to an agent. I don’t doubt the sincerity of the writers who create these ideas. In fact I’m impressed with anyone willing to put their ideas out on display. I’m not sure I could ever have that much self-confidence in my own work. I only wish some would spend a little more time to determine if their project is a good fit for a particular agency and learn how to best write a quality pitch (and not overstate their case).

So, with that disclaimer in place…..

  • A proposal for a book of poems to read to your dog. The book will “help dogs feel more loved and more understood.”
  • A phone call from a fellow who wants an agent for his novel, his screenplay, and his non-fiction books. He said I had to go to his site to see what he had to offer, I replied that I prefer he go to mine first and follow the guidelines. We agreed to disagree…  Afterwards, out of curiosity, I visited the site and discovered conspiracy theory material and advocacy for the legalization of marijuana.
  • Cover letter proclaims that the book’s, “… real author is the Holy Spirit… The book could come next to the Holy Scripture in terms of divine authorship.”
  • A novel that is “made up of multiple lessons and experiences…layer upon layer of actions, emotions and moments…woven together to create an indelible legacy…” (in a long run-on sentence.)
  • A non-fiction study revealing that Moses was Satan in disguise. According to the author, Moses was “the worst serial killer in recorded history.”
  • A letter addressed to The Steve Laub Agency (misspelled my last name)…and then the salutation of the letter began: Dear Mr. Fugate
  • A book titled Cosmic [expletive deleted] described that it “has the audacity to speak the truth. It says, ignore all the [expletive deleted] , believe in your dreams and do what you love– it WILL work out! It is as fearless and fun as it is comforting and inspirational.”
  • A book with a subtitle: Actual Raw Photography of Fairies, Gnomes and More
  • Opening line from a query letter: “Imagine a combination of a romance by Danielle Steele, an epic novel by Barbara Taylor Bradford, and an action novel by Nelson DeMille.”
  • An email that reads in its entirety: “I got your email from your website. I have finished a book and am looking for publishing. I can be reached on email as well. Thank you so much.”
  • In the body of a query letter: “Not since the LEFT BEHIND series has the subject of Christ’s Second Coming been so engagingly addressed.  Not since THE SHACK have spiritual themes been so articulately conveyed.”
  • Letter begins with, “Before my first psychotic break….”
  • Book “based on true experiences” with a subtitle of “Eye floaters as shining structure of consciousness.”

There you have it. A sample of some of the more exotic pieces that have recently crossed my desk.

[UPDATE: Three hours after posting this blog I received a phone call that would have made it on the list if it had come earlier. Person on the phone wonders if we represent memoirs. Why? Because this one is special, caller claims, because caller believes that he/she is the actual person/woman found in Revelation chapter 12. This new development has brought understanding to the caller's experiences with UFOs...and the caller's UFO support group concurs.]

Read these excellent articles about “The Slush Pile”

Laura Miller “When Anyone Can be a Published Author” – Salon Magazine
Rachelle Gardner “Why Oh Why Did I Get Rejected?”
Rachel Funari “Escaping the Slush Pile”
Katherine Rosman “The Death of the Slush Pile”
The Rejectionist “A Good Author is Hard to Find”

Ten Commandments for Working with Your Agent

By request, here are my Ten Commandments for working with your agent. Break them at your own peril. Thou shalt vent only to thine agent and never directly to thy publisher or editor.

  1. Thou shalt not get whipped into a frenzy by the rumor mill fomented by internet loops, groups, Facebook, or blogs.
  2. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s success. Be content with thine own contract.
  3. If thou hast a dispute with thine agent thou shalt talk to thy agent and seekest resolution. Jumping ship for no good reason is unprofessional…and agents talketh to each other.
  4. Thou shalt consider thy deadlines as sacrosanct. Thy hand signeth the contract, therefore thou art obligated. Thou shalt not expect thy agent to miraculously create extra time, at the last minute.
  5. Respecteth the boundaries of the communication relationship with thy agent. Do not risketh being classified as a spammer or high maintenance by thy agent.
  6. Thou shalt be reasonable and balanced with regard to Facebook, Twitter, blogging, or blogs. Thou art a writer….not a teenager. (Thy social networking and Internet writing shouldeth be related to marketing efforts or to increasing thy platform and readership.) Remembereth…every word written on Facebook is a word not written on thy manuscript. [This commandment was revised on 9/25/10  in response to visceral reactions both public and private. I previously stated that a writer should spend no more than an hour a week with social networking and blogs. Boy did I touch a nerve!]
  7. Keepeth it all in perspective. Selling only eight thousand books still meaneth 8,000 people have “bought a ticket” to read thy work. That crowd would filleth a basketball arena.
  8. Remember thy calling to be a writer and keep it holy. You are in the business of changing the world word by word. Everything else is secondary.
  9. Thou shall rise and call thy agent blessed. (and send chocolates at Christmas and cash on birthdays…)
  10. If thou dost not have an agent, do not passeth “Go.” Instead grabbeth one and bringeth said agent into thy camp ASAP. This industry is a labyrinth and thou shalt someday discover thou needest one, and then it shall be too late. Real life examples available upon request.

__________
Permission is granted to use this in your own bog or web site, as long as you include the following copyright notice:
© 2010 Steve Laube of The Steve Laube Agency (
www.stevelaube.com)

The Curse of the Writer

Speaking from an agent’s perspective…
I have more conversations with clients about their feelings of anxiety, apprehension or insecurity than almost any other topic. Almost every writer I have ever worked with as an editor or an agent severely doubts themselves at some point in the process.

Doubts occur in the midst of creation.
Doubts occur when the disappointing royalty statement arrives.
Doubts occur … just because…

It is the curse of the writer. Writing is an introspective process done in a cave…alone. It is natural to have the demons of insecurity whisper their lies. And, in a cave, the whispers echo and build into a cacophony of irrepressible noise.

Once I had an author with dozens of titles in print and over three million books sold turn to me and say with a somber voice, “Do I have anything left to say? Does anyone care?” I didn’t quite know how to reply so tentatively said, “Well, I like it!” The author responded with a grump, “But you are paid to like it.” After we laughed, we agreed that this lack of confidence would pass and ultimately was very normal.

When all is written and done there is the extraordinary feeling of accomplishment when the book is finished and that ministry of words begins.

A couple times a writer has cried, “But my book has only sold 5,000 copies!” I reply, “Put all 5,000 people into one room. Imagine it. A Megachurch auditorium filled with people, wall to wall. And every person in that room has paid money to read your book. And then you walk out onto the stage to give the glory and honor to our God.” That helps put things in perspective.

I hope we don’t write for fame. I hope we don’t write for glory. We write because we must. (Although the occasional ”bit-o-cash” would be nice.)

And maybe your magazine article on praying for teens will arrive on my doorstep the very day that my wife and I are struggling with how to pray for our teenager. I say “thank you” to that writer who ministered to our family many years ago, whose words were a breath of fresh air. That writer will never know what impact they had. And neither will you…at least in this life.

My advice? Embrace the lows as simply part of the process and keep the highs from distracting you (adrenaline is addictive).

That Conference Appointment

You snagged one of those valuable 15 minute appointments with an agent or an editor at the writers conference. Now what? What do you say? How do you say it? And what does that scowling person on the other side of the table want? What if you blow it?

Many excellent posts have been written on this topic (see Rachelle Gardner and Kate Schafer Testerman for example) but thought I would add my perspective as well.

What advice would you give to a beginning writer about attending a writers conference and meeting with an editor or an agent?

Go in with realistic expectations. The biggest mistake is thinking that this is the guaranteed method for getting a book contract and that you have one chance to make or break your entire writing dream. Modify those expectations. Instead see it as a learning experience and a place to listen and absorb the sights and sounds around you. It can, in some ways, be a safe place to fail.

Over the years it is estimated that you’ve conducted nearly 2,000 of these appointments. What are you looking for in a new author or client? Is there an element in a pitch that you look for?

This a VERY difficult question. Reading anything is an extremely subjective experience. If I like the pitch I may not like the writing. And sometimes the pitch is weak but the writing is great. And furthermore, what gets me excited may cause another agent’s eyes glaze over.

In the appointment I’m looking at the person as much as the pitch and the writing. It is the connection made with their personality and their passion and their overall presentation of themselves. That is as much a part of the pitch as the actual words in the manuscript. It is one of the reasons why agents and editors go to a conference…to see firsthand that “snap” or “spark” which makes that person stand out. Hopefully the execution of the writing delivers as well.

Understand that I’m not saying that someone has to be a “bigger-than-life” personality. That would be a rather shallow perspective. Instead it is reading the person behind the page. It is hard to explain and impossible to teach to someone else. But those of us on this side of the table know what I mean. The successful agents and editors have the ability to pick those few from the crowd..

So, please understand I’m not talking about a song and dance routine. But instead I’m talking of the internal fire, that God given spark that says, “Steve? Pay attention.”

What is the one thing that drives you crazy about people when they pitch. What is the one thing you wish they would do?

On the one hand is the person who tries to tell their entire novel or book idea with excruciating detail. That is either a case of nerves or a case of failing to practice ahead of time.

On the other hand is the person who is so precise that they sit down, smile, and hit me with their 25 word blurb. Then they close their mouth and expectantly wait for my august pronouncement, as if that is considered a conversation. That “interview” has lasted for all of two minutes at that point…. and the silence is rather awkward. (Realize I haven’t read anything yet.)

The key is a strong balance between being over eager and talkative and the sterile precision of a practiced speaker. Remember, this is a conversation. I am not only listening to your pitch, I’m also listening to you. I am also meeting you.

But if I say “No. This doesn’t work for me.” That doesn’t mean I don’t like you. It is like the sidewalk vendor who shows me their turquoise jewelry and I say “No thanks. Not today.” I am declining a business proposition not crushing your soul.

Is there any sort of unwritten protocol to which you can clue us in?

Use your common sense. The jokes about slipping a proposal under a bathroom stall door are based in fact. Imagine my surprise while standing in the bathroom doing my business when a fellow comes up to me and starts pitching his book idea. I turned my head and sternly had to say, “Not now! Do you really want me to associate your book idea with this experience?”

At one conference a woman followed me into the men’s room while making her pitch. I had to ask her if she would mind waiting outside for a moment.

I’ll never forget another lady who came up to the appointment table, stood over me, and shook a finger saying, “Now you be nice to me!” And then gestured aggressively at another editor in the room, “Because that man over there made me cry.” I timidly asked her to take a seat.

Once a writer was so nervous about the appointment that the moment she sat down she burst into tears.

My advice to every writer is to r-e-l-a-x. Be yourself. The editor/agent is not necessarily an ogre. (However, after watching me at a writers conference in Oklahoma City Thomas Umstattd gave me the title “The Harbinger of Grim Reality” or “ogre” for short. Gee, thanks Thomas.)

If you run into an editor/agent in the hall or the elevator, it’s okay to talk to them! We are not “rock star celebrities” for goodness sake. We have come to the conference with the goal to find new talent and to nurture relationships.

Try not to argue with the editor/agent. It’s okay to disagree and state your case, but if you let it devolve into a snit you need to apologize…and so does the editor/agent. Civility should reign. If I make a statement regarding the receptivity of the market to your book idea, I’m not asking for a debate (“But mine is so much better than Harry Potter!”), I’m merely expressing my observations about the marketplace.

It’s been said that some editors and agents request everything pitched to them at a conference. What is your take on this, and how often do you make requests?

There can be the problem of the “false positive” at a conference. By “false positive” I mean the editor/agent says, “Send it to me” only to later send a stock rejection letter. It is a problem of which there is no real solution. Editors/Agents cannot fully evaluate a project in a 15 minute meeting or over a group dinner table. Back in the office they can weigh your project against the others they are considering. But at least you are being considered! If you had not gone to the conference you would not have had that chance. I can name numerous times in my past where I contracted someone after reading the proposal in the office. Of course the majority receive the “no thank you” letter. Just because the faculty member says, “send it” doesn’t carry with it a guarantee of a sale.

It is especially difficult with fiction because the reading is more of an experience than an evaluation. I’m not afraid to say, “This needs work” to any writer and many of you reading this blog have heard those words from me. But at the same time our agency’s door is always open. We are always in the hunt for the “next best.” I can’t know if that is the “next” unless I get it reviewed and read it myself in a different context outside the conference.

Have you ever signed an author after meeting with them at conference?

Many times. Both as an agent and back when I was an editor at Bethany House. It does happen. Most recently it happened at the Mt. Hermon conference in March 2010. This first time author made her initial pitch during dinner. Her non-fiction idea was great and the pitch was dynamic. We then met later one-on-one to discuss the idea further. Then I spent time with the sample writing back in my office. We decided to work together and spent a few months developing a top-notch proposal. After sending it around we have had interest from five publishers with two wanting face-to-face meetings at their headquarters. Ultimately it turned into a high value multi-book offer from a major publisher…for a first-time non-fiction author. And it all started with a short meeting at the conference.

I can safely say that every editor or agent would agree that if they find one (only one) new talent from a conference it is considered a success.

I’ve had many times where nothing specific came out of that conference but years later it bore fruit. For example, Paul Robertson attended a conference where I spoke in the late 90s. He said he sent something afterwards that I rejected. Eight years later he sent me a proposal that is now a published book (The Heir) with Bethany House. So while I didn’t necessarily see anything at the time it had results nearly 10 years later.

Have you ever rejected someone who later became a successful author?

Of course! Ask any editor/agent about the “one they let get away.” They’ll be “happy” to tell you their story.

At the Florida writers conference a few years ago we had a faculty meeting prior to the event. Each faculty member stood up and introduced themselves. The first turned and said, “Hi, my name is ____ and here is my new book….which Steve Laube rejected.” We all laughed. Then the next person stood and said, “Hi, my name is ____ … and Steve Laube rejected me too.” There were over a dozen published authors in that room who claimed the “Laube rejection.” So when it came to my turn, I stood and said, “Hi, my name is Steve Laube and I’m the key to your success.” Hilarity ensued.

A lot of writers deserve their initial rejections! Often they start out with a half-baked pitch or with an idea that just landed on the bestseller list written by another author. Jack Cavanaugh went to writers conferences for ten years before he sold the first of his 25+ novels. During those years he learned the craft, he learned the industry, and he became friends with editors. And when the time was right his novel was accepted and a career was born.

E-Book Sales: Behind the Stats

There is mixed news with regard to book sales in May of this year. Store sales were down 2.6% but publisher sales were up by 9.8%. Read all the various stats here. Remember these are simply comparison of 2010 monthly numbers with 2009.

The biggest area of growth, percentage-wise, is in e-books (up 162.8%).

But lets look at actual dollars, not percentages.

Publisher sales (according to the Association of American Publishers) were $715.3 million in May. Of that total, e-books accounted for $29.3 million…or about 4%. If this was a 162% jump over 2009, then e-book sales in May of last year were $11.2 million.

There is no question that this is a huge leap. But it still means that 96% of all sales are still in hard copy.

Many experts claim that in five years (by the year 2015) that e-books will “tip” and account for over 50% of all book sales. I’ve heard this from two major publishers (one was the head of the digital initiatives for that publisher) and from my friend Randy Ingermanson in his excellent e-zine (read pages 2-11 for his full report on the issue).

For that to happen a 100% growth rate would have to be sustained. That would mean 2011 would have e-books at 8% of sales, 2012 at 16% of sales, 2013 at 32%, etc.

I’m not arguing that it won’t happen. Just that it may not happen quite so fast. Sustaining that rate of growth is a lot harder than it looks on paper (no pun intended). Please read my earlier blog post “Is Print Dead” to go further behind these type of statistics (in that post I attempt to show that hard copy CDs still account for nearly 70% of all music sales).

I’ve written earlier that I own a Kindle and like it. I have bought a number of books for the device. And in fact have purchased many books that I already owned in paper…sort of a “best of” or “favorites” bookshelf. Why? Because I’m a collector. And having those books with me at all times is a neat thing. Plus they become searchable. It also means that I can have access to these books forever and from wherever I am. And I’m not in fear of losing books when the corner of the garage collapses in a big rain storm (true story). However, if there are a lot of people like me, then the “growth” is somewhat skewed.

I hesitantly compare this to the transition from record albums to cassette tapes to compact discs. Or the transition from VHS to DVD (and now to Blue-Ray). I suspect many of you purchased albums or movies that you already owned because you wanted them in the new format, for whatever reason. They were your favorites. So initially some of your expenditures were not for new material. Of course, eventually we began purchasing 100% of all new music or movies in the new format. And that is where the direct comparison with books breaks down.

There are legion of readers who will not convert to e-books. An amateur poll I’ve taken of folks (family, friends, professional acquaintances) has been very interesting. Most are intrigued by the Kindle device. One showed me their iPad (with an accompanying gloat). But few were ready to embrace switching from p-books (paper) to e-books (electronic). And none were prepared to go all digital any time soon.

I reiterate what I’ve said before. This is one of the most exciting times to be in this industry. The changes are rapid, they are innovative, and they are creative. Writers who can create dynamic content have nothing to fear. The consumer continues to demand great content in whatever form they can get it. Literary agents like myself, make it our job to watch these developments carefully and to continue to safeguard our client’s revenue and their ideas.

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