Publishing books is an imprecise process, with many ingredients involved, making it impossible to predict a particular outcome.
Working for and with publishers for most of my life, I’ve seen every side of the business; and the best I can do to describe it is humbling for everyone involved. Anyone who thinks they have it all figured out with 100% certainty is in for a rude awakening and a humbling series of circumstances that drives many out of the industry, but at the very least drives those who stay involved to their knees, literally and figuratively.
Every publisher, whether for-profit or not-for-profit, must generate more revenue each year than its expenses. No one continues to operate if that isn’t the case.
The primary ingredient to their success is the ability to identify, develop, and publish books that sell well. And by the way, everyone at a publisher knows who is better at that than others.
Years ago, I worked for a publisher and helped develop a data-analysis process to evaluate the success of every book they published. One of the items I could add to the mix was the name of the person who identified and acquired the book. Twenty years ago, in this particular case, there was no desire for that information because it could create problems for those who didn’t grade well, who might have been long-term or respected employees.
Fast-forward to today, and every publisher evaluates their staff using some metrics. If you are involved in acquiring new titles, you will have a scorecard somewhere in the company to record your wins and losses.
When someone turns down your book at a publisher, in some cases (hopefully rare), the person declining it might be under pressure to improve their “batting average” and might be less than excited about taking another risk on something that isn’t a sure thing (which doesn’t exist either).
As an agent, I won’t take on a new client if I cannot think of enough acquiring editors who might be interested. I have a baseball mentality to agenting. If I send too many proposals to an editor who declines, I might not get the same consideration when something really fits with them. That’s why agents are picky as well. Too many swings and misses, and editors stop paying attention to what we send.
From an aspiring author’s standpoint, they want someone to take a chance on them and allow them to be published.
But agents and publishers are very selective in what they represent or publish, mainly because their livelihood could be on the line. Too many failures and it makes agenting not worth the effort, and could jeopardize the employment of someone working at a publisher.
Book publishing is a failure business, just like baseball. In publishing, if a publisher is good at what they do, a third of their new books make money, a third lose money, and a third might break even.
In baseball, the difference between a player who is an all-star and someone who never gets much of a chance to play can boil down to one additional hit every twenty times they bat.
Yes, everyone is picky in publishing, and for good reason.
I know rejection is horrible, but be more understanding when you encounter those who are more risk-averse than you. You may be unaware of the pressures they face to perform.
You may go out, evangelizing
to what seemed a likely crowd,
and leave with your tail sitting
between your legs, head bowed,
for you have struck out once again,
though you preached with cool precision
and left with your ears all aflame
to laughter and derision,
and you wonder just what God
must think of your batting average.
Does he think that you are flawed,
unable now to manage
the talents He placed in yours hands?
Fear not! You’re HIS…He understands.
Hello,
This article gives the impression of near impossibility. Is the real art in writing the querry letter?
I don’t doubt the authenticity of your article but it is a daunting process.
Thanks
It is daunting and has always been that way. A particular publisher might receive several thousand proposals from authors and agents each year and need to select the 50-60 they will ultimately publish.
A good proposal or query will garner some attention, but truly interesting and creative writing will eventually find its way. Every author gets rejected multiple times.
The process is not unlike that of other competitive performance fields, such as music, art, acting, and sports. The vast majority of those seeking a career in it will likely find it nearly impossible to make a long career out of it.
This is why there are multiple times more titles self-published each year than are traditionally published.
It’s a wild ride.
I spent a few decades doing professional R&D and analytics. Publishing sounds like NFL scouting and drafts; it’s often little better than hit or miss.
Good metrics and analytics give insights into what factors (or combinations of factors) are actually important. This guides process changes that help everyone improve.
Mediocre analytics merely point out the obvious differences between high and low performers. Sadly, this is what many organizations do. Even worse is when organizations fail in their due diligence for statistical relevance and use metrics that are little better than random.
Unfortunately, most organizations and fields use metrics based on what information is readily available. Few do the in-depth work needed to find insights in the information that will improve everyone’s performance.
One challenge of publishing is that “success” fits a power law distribution like predicting strong earthquakes, large stock market shifts, or large charitable donations. Most people’s intuition doesn’t function well when dealing with things like this; most are too used to bell curves. E.g. most people think knowing the average number of books sold by all authors on Amazon is a good guide to their potential sales.
🙂 Sorry, this just triggered a few horror stories I’ve seen. Cathy O’Neil’s book “Weapons of Math Destruction” has some examples of cultural disasters.
Well said. I appreciate how clearly you show it isn’t easy on either side of the mailbox.
(Imagine if parents of picky eaters competed with that number of options coming at their kids! How often would mom’s cooking win, I wonder.)
It’s the ole you-don’t-know-what-people-are-looking-for syndrome. How many times have we read where a publishing rejects a book that goes on to be a wild best-seller? I’m sure the houses that rejected Harry Potter are shaking their heads. The general public is incredibly unpredictable.