Book publishing is filled with people having substantial experience and who know a lot about how things work in the publishing world. Authors, publisher staff, retailers and agents have a bevy of information and make informed decisions every day.
But book publishing is a humility-building pursuit because a good amount of this great wisdom is nothing more than 20/20 hindsight.
“I knew it wouldn’t work.”
“I knew it would sell well.”
“I knew this would happen.”
Everyone is smart in hindsight. In hindsight, we are all 100% correct in our manuscript assessments and budget estimates. But book publishing is a lot like hitting a baseball. If you are right 30-40% of the time, you are a hero.
A mediocre baseball player might get 25 hits in 100 chances. A great player will get 30. A legendary player will get 35 hits in 100 chances.
Everyone strikes out and commits errors on a regular basis.
So it is in publishing.
There are a lot of people in influential roles at publishers and very successful who are right only about 30-40% of the time.
Same for a successful author. Of their first ten books, one or two will probably sell really well, a couple sell pretty well, a couple books are so-so and then the remaining were a little more on the “not so good” side of the ledger.
Your first book might not sell well, leading you to think you are finished. But striking out in your first time to bat doesn’t make it impossible to succeed later. You practice hitting and one day it all comes together, when you will only fail 60-70% of the time and considered an all-star.
So what is the point of all this?
Book publishing, whether traditional or self-published is a humbling venture. Everyone involved fails more than succeeds. Don’t give up at the first sign of failure.
If you are a new author and are rejected and feel the person rejecting your work is making a mistake, you might be right.
Or not.
But if you think you have it all figured out or someone says they have it all figured out and can make guarantees of success, you are both incorrect. If “having it all figured out” means you miss the mark only 60% of the time, then it is okay to brag.
If you attend enough writer’s conferences, you might come away with ten steps to succeed 100% of the time. Not true.
The best you can hope for is to succeed about a third of the time.
One of the great frustrations for new (and experienced) authors is when they follow every instruction, do exactly what is required by every seminar leader or editor and still cannot be published.
The reason?
All the wisdom, advice, steps, actions or to-do lists will make it so you only fail 60% of the time.
Sure, 20/20 hindsight can help anyone avoid big mistakes in the future, but no one knows with absolute certainty what readers will like two or three years from now.
The reason is (here it is again) because writing and publishing books is an art form, not a perfect science.
In a few years, readers might begin to abandon Amish-themed romance fiction and want to see what happens when a Lutheran marries a Methodist or a conservative Presbyterian is unequally yoked to a liberal Presbyterian.
Now there’s a suspenseful plot!
And who knows what non-fiction books will resonate in 2020.
The deepest, darkest secret in all book publishing is no one really knows with 100% certainty what is going to happen or what will sell. We know a lot about what happened already and hope it might lead to something similar in the future, but we are not one hundred percent sure.
Everyone is smart after the fact, but making decisions for tomorrow contains a good measure of humble flexibility.
If you hang around too many “hindsight-smart” people you could end up frustrated and discouraged because they make it sound predictable and cut-and-dried, which are terms never used to describe book publishing.
Humility, a willingness to learn something new and ability to change direction quickly are helpful traits to cultivate in your life and look for in others.
Realm Makers 2016
Yes, I’ve stopped listening to the hindsighter’s…well not completely, but I’ve found that if I spend all of my time learning every “foolproof method” I’m not actually doing and writing, and therefore any REAL improving. I’m a step out kind of girl…so walking out on that ledge and taking a chance – daily, is in my dna. It can be hard to always receive the rejections….but the artistic process is oh so fun and ultimately worth it, because in the end…and artist creates because there just isn’t any other choice. Thanks for the encouragement Dan 🙂
Thank you, Dan Balow, I needed that. I believe I have achieved the Black Belt in humility and flexibility. Just waiting for God to call me into the ring.
Hey Dan, I could so do a book on the Presbyterians! If you’re looking for one, just say the word (just kidding here!). Seriously, thanks for the words of wisdom to newbies like me. This has been a real learning curve, finding out about the world of publishing, and I appreciate having the opportunity to learn from you folks at the Steve Laube Agency!
Best,
Sheri
The question for me when I began writing 25 years ago was — If God wants to see me published, what does he want me to write? I didn’t have to be successful or rich or famous. My writing had to honor Him and His people and precepts. That’s still my goal today. I’ve made mistakes but learned from them and He’s forgiven me so it’s all systems go!
Dan,
Truly an encouraging word today–yes, sometimes your reality checks are actually uppers instead of downers! 🙂 I think what you explained is a (loose) metaphor for the Christian life, as well as publishing isn’t it? I certainly hope my “batting average” is higher than .350 for choices I make, but we do need to let go of the whole idea that we or anyone else living on Earth now is batting 1.000, making perfect, infallible decisions–even agents and publishers. My foray into trying to publish fiction, after publishing only non-fiction, has been a lesson in faith. Even if I think the agent or rep has made a big mistake in rejecting or postponing acceptance of my proposal, I have to accept that maybe God is teaching HER that she isn’t going to win the major league batting title this year, and I’m incidentally learning humility and patience. Great post, as always. Thanks!
Pondering your words:
Risk can come from arrogance/haughty and rushing or can come from the aim for no guile in the faithfulness of working with humility and patience. To become slow, stopped or frozen in the risk taking from the worry of or the previous failure 60 percent of the time, cheats one of the success/goodness/fun available and waiting in the 39, 35, 25, 15 or less percent.
Hindsight like most things are two sided. You can be arrogant, always right and bragging using it. Or you can reflect back and learn the lessons and new insights by reviewing your life and choices. Life certainly can teach you humility but also wisdom and healing if our the eyes of our heart is open to God and willing to listen. I smiled at your inclusion of the trait of flexibility. I have read one of the characteristic of those who live a long life is flexibility. Good trait to work on. Thanks for your thoughts today.
Great post. I started out with a small publisher; was their first Christian fiction and it was Christian Spec. fiction at that. I followed their advice, blogged twice a week on the website they provided; did the twitter two-step and Face-booked all of my friends to death.
I even attended the ABA and sat in their booth in front of advert poster and book rack with my first novel bigger than life around me. Sales were dismal. My book quickly went to the Christian version of the remainders distributors.
I stuck out on a big stage with runners in scoring position.
After a few months of moping around I got my rights to the series back and self-pubbed. Success was almost as elusive. It turns out the small Christian Spec. fiction market is about 10x smaller when Amazon is your only ally.
After a couple of years I took a different tack and went to work for a Christian think-tank and journal doing investigative long form pieces (10,000 words). The non-fiction route made me work harder, check my backgrounds (references) better, put me in a working relationship with a good editor and gave me immediate feedback in letters and calls to the editor, between articles.
During this process I’d revisit my first fiction offerings and cringe at the holes my writing had in it, just like a bad swing. No wonder I struck out.
Two months ago I released my latest book length offering (non-fiction) and this time I hit the ball, hard!
Your piece is not only timely for all of us writers swinging for the fences; it’s a classic too. Try to get this particular blog in a little wider (Writer’s Digest) circulation. All struggling writers need to see it.
Thanks
I shop at the “dollar”stores where they sell books that were overprinted and undersold. I wonder as I look at the author’s names if they ever thought their books would spiral down to that level. Most probably thought the small and large publishers who held their contracts would have made them a NY Times best selling author. Alas, we know that is not the case.
Publishing is not a science nor is there a 100% formula for writing a best seller. We are to write our best and see where God leads us.
Great post and an excellent example. We don’t think of the number of times a batter strikes out, we only look at the hits and home runs. But, as I remind my baseball playing son, even the pros have an average that is about 1/3. This really encourages me because I tend to be one of those “I’m doing the work. I’m not a slacker!” (Thanks, Bob.) kind of people. It can become frustrating to wonder why something isn’t playing out the way I expect if I do what I’m supposed to do. (A good following God life lesson too!)
Thanks!
“Don’t give up.” I guess that’s my take-away from this. No matter what the odds or how many failures or how many times you mess up, never give up. Very insightful article.
Dan,
Speaking of wishful foresight and knowledgeable hindsight, this question has been plaguing me for a few days: If the main character of a CBA fiction novel that spans five years is an older teen, but the writing, plot, and theme are geared toward adults, how do agents and publishers work with the author in marketing the book?