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The Steve Laube Agency

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Home » Trends

Trends

The Anatomy of the Publishing Cycle

By Steve Laubeon November 25, 2024
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If you ask an editor or an agent, “What’s hot right now?” you are too late with the question. The nature of the publishing business is that what you see selling today are books that were conceived, written, published, and marketed over the past couple of years or more.

That is why we, on this side of the table, avoid making pronouncements on current trends. In some ways, the agent and the acquisitions editor are like the scout who is sent ahead by the main patrol or army to figure out the lay of the land so they can form a strategy for the future.

Publishing often follows a cycle that becomes the engine behind a trend. Some are concept or genre-specific, while others are more generic in nature. Let’s explore, in a simplified fashion, the anatomy of the publishing cycle.

Something Hits Big

Whether it is the “parable” business book (Who Moved My Cheese?), Edwardian settings (i.e., Downton Abbey), heavenly visitation stories (Heaven Is for Real), the Amish novel, Twilight, Jesus Calling, or dual-timeline fiction, a book or genre will hit big. It can be either fiction or nonfiction. No one can predict how this happens or when it will happen. If they could, they would manufacture the next big thing every week.

To the Races

When something does hit, the readers clamor for more; and the machinery of writers, editors, and agents are galvanized to see if they can capitalize on the phenomenon after determining if what is selling has staying power. And not everything has staying power.

Chick-lit is the perfect example. Twenty years ago, it was a “can’t-go-wrong” genre … until it wasn’t. The interest in that type of book died so quickly it caught a bunch of publishers holding contracts and forthcoming books by the dozens that were doomed.

Some writers are fortunate in that their interests and work is suddenly “hot,” even though they had been laboring without success writing that type of book for years. This can be a wonderful serendipity.

Eventually, chick-lit was resurrected; it was simply given a different name to avoid the negative market connection. See this article from 2021: “Chick-Lit Isn’t Dead and Why We Should Still Be Talking About It.”

The Inevitable Glut

Within a year or two, the machinery noted above has lumbered its way to producing massive amounts of books that follow those trends.

Think of the number of “vampire” books that came out after the success of Twilight. Or the number of Amish novels that came out after 2006–so much so that it was no longer a trend but created its own genre! Or the number of YA dystopian novels that followed the success of Hunger Games, Divergent, and Maze Runner.

The danger here is that editors can become fatigued by all the “me too” proposals. To the point that editors will cry, “No more of those novel proposals, please!” The irony is that the readership for that type of story may still be strong, but the publishers and booksellers are less enamored. Why?

The Winnowing Begins

Eventually, the fatigue becomes real; and whatever was hot is no longer hot. This means a new book of that type may sell half or less than what it would have if it had been released two years ago. It doesn’t mean the genre is dead, just that the threshold for a book to sell well is more difficult and the stories have to be much better written.

Writers who stop selling as well are not resigned by their publishers. Their modest sales numbers become part of their writing sales history, making a new publisher reluctant to try them out. This is an ugly reality. I wish I could be a cheerleader and make everyone feel good, but this is what happens. We who’ve been around a long time have watched it time and again. Some writers adapt and shift gears and can restart in a new or tangential genre. Others give up, fade away, or go indie and publish on their own. Each author’s situation is different, and it is one way a good agent can guide you.

The Cycle Begins Again

I still remember a time when no publisher wanted new historical novels. No, I’m not talking about last week. I’m talking about the Summer of 2004, right after I started this agency. I had a historical novel proposal by a bestselling author, and we shopped it around the industry. No one wanted it, with rejection after rejection filling the inbox. They all wanted contemporary chick-lit (see above). After seven months of effort, we finally sold the proposal. But that is not the “rest of the story.”

Ironically, a couple of years later, I was talking to an editor who said, “I’m really looking for a strong historical project by a top author,” and then named my client. I sputtered and said, “You could have had the author, but you turned the project down two and a half years ago!” We nervously laughed and talked about the inevitable cycle of publishing.

Chase the Rabbit or Stand Firm?

Trying to chase the trends as a writer is a bit like trying to catch a rabbit who doesn’t want to get caught. You might get lucky, but usually you’ll come up empty-handed.

Instead of chasing the rabbit, my encouragement is to stand firm in what you are called to write and to your strengths as a writer. That doesn’t mean there will be a magic moment when everyone lines up to buy your book. You may need the time to learn the craft or the industry. I know of one author who spent ten years going to writers conferences, learning the craft and the editors. One day, one of those editors moved to a new publisher; and in a meeting someone said, “We should be publishing this type of book.” The editor raised her hand and said, “I know someone who’s been writing that very thing and he’s not under contract.” The phone call was made and that author subsequently won two Christy Awards and published nearly twenty novels.

At the same time, there is a difference between standing firm and being stubborn. There are proposals I’ve seen that simply do not have the commercial “zing” that publishers are looking for. But the author doesn’t hear that and doubles down on the same manuscript, hoping that the market will change. Unfortunately, I can only render my opinion based on experience and an understanding of today’s marketplace. You must exercise wisdom and discernment to determine if your project should be set aside for another time or if it is truly something that will work someday.

 

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Category: Book Business, Branding, Career, Creativity, Indie, Marketing, TrendsTag: publishing, The Publishing Life, Trends

Book Industry Trends

By Steve Laubeon November 7, 2022
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Publishing is partly an exercise in guessing what might be the next surprise bestseller. Some of it is an educated guess based on certain trends we see in the industry and in society at large. Any exercise in naming these trends bears the risk of expressing the obvious or being out of date the moment they are stated. So bear with me as I tinker with some of the factors that are either influencing …

Read moreBook Industry Trends
Category: Book Business, Contracts, E-Books, Get Published, TrendsTag: book industry, Trends

Saving the World, One Romance at a Time

By Tamela Hancock Murrayon February 27, 2020
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Often I will receive submissions of novels tying in an element of mystery and suspense with romance. Writers targeting the romantic suspense market will find difficulty in placing this type of story. Why? Because romantic suspense readers have certain expectations that won't be met with a mere element of mystery and intrigue.

In my experience trying to sell and market romantic suspense, I have …

Read moreSaving the World, One Romance at a Time
Category: Genre, Get Published, Romance, Romantic Suspense, Tamela, Trends, Writing CraftTag: Pitching, Proposals, Tamela, Trends

Never Burn a Bridge!

By Steve Laubeon December 2, 2019
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The sale of Thomas Nelson to HarperCollins and last week's sale of Heartsong to Harlequin brought to mind a critical piece of advice:

Never Burn a Bridge!

Ours is a small industry and both editors and authors move around with regularity. If you are in a business relationship and let your frustration boil into anger and ignite into rage...and let that go at someone in the publishing company, …

Read moreNever Burn a Bridge!
Category: Agency, Book Business, Book Business, Career, Communication, Rejection, The Publishing Life, The Writing Life, TheologyTag: Agents, Editors, Get Published, Rejection, Trends, Writing Craft

To Romance or Not to Romance

By Tamela Hancock Murrayon November 14, 2019
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According to St. Teresa of Avila’s biography, the battle over romance novels has been going on at least since the 1500s:

Teresa's father was rigidly honest and pious, but he may have carried his strictness to extremes. Teresa's mother loved romance novels but because her husband objected to these fanciful books, she hid the books from him. This put Teresa in the middle -- especially since she …

Read moreTo Romance or Not to Romance
Category: Genre, Romance, Trends, Writing CraftTag: Ideas, Romance, Tamela, Trends, Writing Craft

Say It in a Sentence

By Steve Laubeon November 4, 2019
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Can you present your book idea in one sentence?

Can you present that idea in such a way that the reader is compelled to buy your book?

What motivates someone to spend money on a book? It is the promise that there is something of benefit to me, the reader.

Books are generally purchased for one of three reasons:

Entertainment
Information
Inspiration

If your book idea can make me …

Read moreSay It in a Sentence
Category: Book Proposals, Get Published, Marketing, Pitching, The Writing LifeTag: Marketing, Pitching, Trends, Writing Craft

What Are Average Book Sales?

By Steve Laubeon June 24, 2019
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A writer asked me, “What does the average book sell? An industry veteran at a writers conference recently said 5,000. What??? I know it all depends …. but … nowhere near 5,000, right?” My simple answer? It’s complicated. It depends. Average is a difficult thing to define. Each publishing company defines success differently. If a novel sells 5,000 copies at one publisher, …

Read moreWhat Are Average Book Sales?
Category: Book Business, Book Sales, Get Published, Money, The Publishing Life, The Writing LifeTag: Book Business, Book Sales, Get Published, Trends

Exciting Developments In Book Publishing

By Dan Balowon May 1, 2018
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As changes in the marketplace require publishers, authors, and agents adapt continually, a number of entirely new initiatives and companies are springing into action to serve various parts of an ever-evolving industry. Here are some of the most interesting new things to keep on your radar: Elf-Publishing – as books become shorter, it’s natural for the elf-publishing industry to take root. …

Read moreExciting Developments In Book Publishing
Category: Humor, The Publishing LifeTag: Humor, The Publishing Life, Trends

Change, We’ve Seen You Before

By Dan Balowon April 24, 2018
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Change always seems to occur faster than you think but often slower than you think. Most things in society or life are at the same time dramatically different than they were a few years ago, but eerily similar to fifty years ago. If you are an observer or participant in the book publishing world, you can completely ignore certain trends and not be harmed at all. In fact, when you ignore the …

Read moreChange, We’ve Seen You Before
Category: Book Business, TrendsTag: Book Business, ebooks, Trends

Losing Track of Time

By Tamela Hancock Murrayon February 15, 2018
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When I first started sending books and articles to editors in hopes of being selected for publication, the passage of time possessed few markers. For example, the mail arrived once a day. There was no trail like this on the touchtone wall phone: Wednesday, 10 AM: Your Amazon order was received. Wednesday, 8 PM: Your Amazon order was shipped. Thursday, 11 AM: Your Amazon package is scheduled for …

Read moreLosing Track of Time
Category: The Publishing Life, The Writing LifeTag: The Publishing Life, The Writing Life, Trends
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